are we running out of sand? an exercise in finding out sfuff

First, I noticed that almost all the articles treating the subject of the sand crisis at the top of the google search exhibit this consensus: We're running out of sand. 

Here is one written by Sam Meredith (he's a correspondent in business for CNBC). 

Our entire society is built on sand. It is the world’s most consumed raw material after water and an essential ingredient to our everyday lives. Sand is the primary substance used in the construction of roads, bridges, high-speed trains and even land regeneration projects. Sand, gravel and rock crushed together are melted down to make the glass used in every window, computer screen and smart phone. 

That opening salvo is pretty confusing. Not that it's untrue. The information is way too simplified, almost digested for you. More interestingly: the article appears in the World politics section of the online paper, which shows where the message is going.  

One thing is to talk about science, another to talk about politics. 

This is a much better article for Forbes Magazine. I picked the author, Laurie Winkless, amongst the many pseudo journalists because she actually has a degree in physics (and an entry in Wikipedia, you want someone with at least a bit of background in science talking about natural science, right?).

Her article is opens with an interesting detail of how and where sand goes:  

The Burj Khalifa is an engineering marvel. Stretching 828 m into the Dubai sky, it is the tallest building the world has ever seen. Its construction used huge quantities of materials; 39,000 tonnes of steel, 103,000 square metres of glass, and 330,000,000 litres of concrete (enough to fill 132 Olympic-sized swimming pools). From the top floor, though, one material dominates the view – sand. So, you might be surprised to learn that the world is running out of this grainy material, mostly thanks to the concrete megastructures that we fill our modern cities with.

So, sand is used in construction and we're in the middle of a construction boom. What is sand? 

Concrete has three basic components: cement, water and aggregate, combined in slightly different proportions. Cement is the powdery substance that reacts with water to form a ‘glue’. The third element is "aggregate," which gives concrete its bulk. Aggregate is actually made from a combination of course gravel and fine sediment, also known as sand. And sand is a $70B industry.

Why are we running our of sand? 

The answer is rapid urbanization, driven largely by China’s recent construction boom. In his book, Making the Modern World, historian Vaclav Smil shared a truly mind-blowing fact (which Bill Gates went on to feature on his blog). Between 2011 and 2013, China used more concrete than the US did in the entire 20th century.  

So, how about the "crisis"? Here is Winkless' conclusion: 

There are lots of people out there looking for more sustainable ways to make concrete (including Solidia and Finite), but as yet, none can provide even close to the quantities industry needs. And we can (and do) meet some of the demand by recycling old concrete, but our sand stocks are still in trouble. By every measure, our current level of sand use, particularly for concrete production, is unsustainable.

What do I gather from this balanced article? 

The high demand on specific types and grades of sand is increasing faster than production can keep up, and natural sources of those particular types of sand are being depleted. 

What happens when they are close to running out? This will be en engineering problem. We may find substitutes, as we generally do. Winkless hints that we may treat other types of sand, or grinding and crushing rocks, or bricks, or old concrete. All this will certainly be more expensive than scooping up and transporting existing sand, so the things that sand is used for (primarily construction) will become more expensive. More expensive concrete will have a lot of downstream effects, 

But why does it have to be catastrophic? 

Few resources are irreplaceable. We'll replace sand at a higher cost, and go about our business, as we've done with lots of materials.

To find this more optimistic article was quite difficult @ Ecomagazine:

There is hope for the future, with a multitude of different alternatives that can already be explored. In developed countries such as the UK, where new construction often replaces demolished buildings, there is potential to recycle rubble instead of using new concrete. The Shard, a recently built 95-storey skyscraper in London is one example of construction in the UK using recycled aggregate. To help with its green credentials, the Shard was built using 140,000 Lignacite LTD blocks that contain 10 percent recycled sand, 27 percent lightweight recycled aggregate and 15 percent recycled wood. Other substitutes for sand in the production of concrete are also available and are currently being used in Europe, including ash from power station incinerators and dust from stone quarries. 

Why was this article buried? The media needs to get your attention. One way to get it is by amplifying an issue to the point of reaching CRISIS PROPORTIONS. What some people call THE FEAR COMPLEX. 

What's my advice to you? SUSPEND JUDGMENT!